Two Plus Two Older Archives - View Single Post - A few questions because I hate this hand.

#1 11-07-2005, 04:35 PM

Here is a hand that I hate. I hate how passively I played it and I hate the fact that the more I think about it the more I am unsure what I should have done and what I should do in the future. I also hate that I can’t seem to properly calculate whether or not to raise the turn if I decide to continue.

I’m new to the table so I don’t have any real reads to go on yet so I’m assuming a fairly passive typical Paradise table.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG+1 posts a blind of $1.
Hero raises, UTG+1 (poster) calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 3-bets, 4 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (21 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

The Flop: I may have capped pre-flop but if I bet this board anyone with a mediocre draw is going to have odds to call and if MP1 has a big pair he’s either going to raise or flat call trying to raise the turn. Even if he just has over cards he’ll probably raise anyways either to get more information about my hand or possibly buy a turn card. If I raise MP1’s flop bet UTG+1 and UTG+2 are getting 12.5:1 pot odds alone so if they have much of anything they’ll come along for the ride regardless and then I’ll be left wondering what the heck to do if the turn also misses me. And so, I peel.

The Turn: Okay I still have nothing and top pair just paired up but no real aggression has been shown yet. Given the 3 bet pre-flop by an unknown I’d have to put MP1 on 10/10-AA or AKo/AKs. Give that he’s still betting into such a large field I’m leaning towards the PP’s more than AK. So I’m either drawing dead to AA, thin to KK, or to overcards against 10/10-QQ. I’m getting 15:1 here but I’m not sure if I can guarantee myself at least 3 out against such a large field. The pot may get raised behind me as I can’t yet rule out a 9 so I was a little lost here.

Here is where I am most lost. At first glance I’m thinking either fold or raise.

Fold: Folding is probably the safest play given the likelihood that I’m behind and the possibility that I’m WAY behind but safe play usually isn’t correct play.

Raise: Now if I continue on at first I thought a raise would be best. If I raise UTG and UTG+1 are getting 8.5:1 on a call forcing hands like JT to make unprofitable calls and making any flush draws pay the maximum. If MP1 (or anyone else) 3 bets me I can be quite sure that I’m behind as I’ve now shown that my hand is (Supposedly) strong.

Problems with raising: First of all I’m probably still drawing with thin odds, if UTG or UTG+1 has a 9 or if MP1 has a strong hand I’m getting 3 bet. If I do raise the only hands that I want to fold, and that I have much chance of folding, are over card hands like JT, QJ, and Q10, a hand with a 5 in it or small PP’s like 88 or 66. Given MP1’s range he has AKs or AKo 8 ways and a PP 27 ways (I very well may have calculated this wrong as I’ve never tried doing an analysis like this before) so again raising seems like a bad idea unless MP1 has TT,JJ, or QQ AND he won’t 3 bet me with those holdings.

Calling: I may not be calculating any of this correctly but I’m going to try anyways.

I put MP1’s range as TT-AA, AKs-AKo. So he has 8 ways to have AK(s or o), 6 each for 10-QQ and 3 each for KK-AA. So 8/32 or 25% of the time he has AK and we’re chopping, 18/32 or 56% of the time I have outs to an A or K, 3/32 or 9.4% of the time I have outs to an A, and another 3/32 or 9.4% of the time I’m drawing dead to AA. So now how many outs can I safely give myself for As and Ks? If I assume that I am drawing, I am going to disregard the times that MP1 holds AK. So, 56% of the time I have 6 outs, 9.4% of the time I have 3 outs, and 9.4% of the time I’m drawing dead. A 6 out draw comes in 6.7:1, while a 3 out is 14.3:1, and drawing dead means I’m screwed regardless.

Okay here I get lost and can’t see the end of the tunnel…can someone please help me calculate the value of raising as opposed to folding or calling?

And finally the river action should you wish to read it now or answer later:

River: (18 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 20 BB

Anyone think we can be good here 1/20?