Re: Slow play set on a dangerous flop?
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It depends on the texture of the game, and how opponents are reacting to you specifically. In many game textures, I wouldn't consider it, but sometimes the tables can be fairly passive.
Is there a 50% chance? Depends on the table, some will be 75%, some will be 25%. One size does not fit all. Further, if they only minraise, I'm calling, any more would depend on the opponent. Some opponents define their hands pretty well with their raises, and if you have a good idea what they have, you can have a better idea if the flop hits them. Calling a raise is very opponent, and raise size dependent.
That is your assumption, not mine. I disagree. Most of the time your opponents are on big cards, and if it comes small you are probably ahead. Of course many times you will have to fold when you miss your set, but not every time, that is playing way too scared.
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Look, the only time other than flopping a set that I'm thinking too seriously about doing anything with my pair of fives on Level 2 FROM EARLY POSITION is when my fives are overcards (very, very rare and STILL a very precarious situation). Sure, if the flop comes 6-high, I might throw out a bet...win a few lose a few. But just because a flop comes "small" in an unraised pot does not mean your opponents are on high cards and have missed. An unraised pot that's 6, 7, 8 high can be a very dangerous thing to your fives (people regularly limp things like A7 and even K8s, J9, etc.)...not to mention the fact that it's not at ALL unreasonable that someone limps with something like 66 behind you. Again, you're out of position...playing fives for other than set value is dangerous. Perhaps if you're an excellent post-flop player then you can garner a small edge by doing it...but if you know proper push/fold strategy, I'll still maintain that by pushing a potential small edge you are going to be sacrificing spots later in tourneys where you have much greater edges. Like I said, perhaps (if you are a serious-level postflop player) +tEV, but probably -$EV for all but the very best of players.
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