Thread: 1/2 nl live AQo
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Old 11-07-2005, 12:55 AM
Vitaliy Vitaliy is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 4
Default Re: 1/2 nl live AQo

Quick decision is quite easy and already been suggested - folding will not hurt you much. For calling here you need strong reads on your oppnents in order to narrow down hands they might be having (especially LP). And I don't see how can anybody calculate odds in this situation.

Analyzing this hand I can think of something like this:

His hand / Prob. having it / Win% / Conrib.%

Kx one spade / 30% / 44% / 8.80%
Pair / 20% / 49% / 9.80%
2 pair / 10% / 35% / 3.50%
Trips / 30% / 28% / 8.40%
Flush / 10% / 28% 2.80%

Your overall win% having this is 37.7%.

Of course I don't know this guy and his % might be much different from what I used.

Anyway having this your pot odds are 1.65 to 1.

So you need to call $475 to win $475+$176+$30=$681. Pot odds suggest that pot needs to be $783+ (475*1.65) for profitable call. So you are about $100 short. Now question to you - will other people who are still in the hand put this $100 seeing this madness? Again - I don't think so.

So even very optimistic calculations suggest to let this hand go.
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