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Old 11-06-2005, 09:03 PM
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Default Turn call with a low pair + gutshot

Im having a lot of discussion with a friend regarding this play. Very small-stakes multi-table NL tournament on PP ... my table has been pretty tight and non-aggressive for the last 3 or 4orbits. Table read seems to be moderatly gunning for me as I stole 3 blinds in a row (button, CO and hijack) in a previous orbit and habitually stole a blind at least once an orbit.

(sorry, I couldnt get hand convert working)

blinds - 25 / 50
I have (1325), villian has (3235)

Villian raises to 100 from MP2
Folded to me in the BB with 3s4s, I call


Flop$225) [ 8h, 3c, Ah ]
I bet 75, Villian calls

Turn: (375) [ 5d ]
I bet 95, Villian raises to 250, ... I ??

I was tired and had a headache, but here were my thoughts on the flop. An obvious bet into the raiser would easily pick up the pot on this table if the raiser whiffed completely. Raiser came off to me as a relatively straightforward player.

His call on the flop didn't give me much information - I figured flush draw or he raised with 2 broadway cards & connected with the ace, or possibly pocket pair ...

Nevertheless, I picked up a gutshot on the turn & decided to fire again. The raise made me think he hit his ace & waited until the turn to pop me. 88, AA and 33 is also a possbility ... but now I'm not sure what to do.

I'm getting ~ 4.65:1 immediate pot odds and I have 900 left in my stack. I have 4 outs for my gutshot, 2 outs for my set & 3 outs to improve to 2-pair (judging by his preflop action I think my 2-pair outs are clean assuming he doesn't have a set). I can't count this as 9 clean outs as he might have 88 or even AA correct? I would like to think the fact that the entire table sees me as an aggressive pot-stealer improves my implied odds as villian would be more likely to push with TPGK. Would it be correct to call this then fold river UI or is this call too crippling to my stack at this early stage of the tourney?
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