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Old 11-06-2005, 05:25 PM
Spekkio Spekkio is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 30
Default Re: AQs - count your outs?

Min raise for information? That'd donkish. A min raise doesn't tell you anything.

Granted, there isn't really a read here, but merely from statistical analysis, he's going to have one pair the vast majority of the time. The $20 raise isn't going to get anyone to fold, and on the turn you're back to not knowing if your outs are good if you miss, and you're also down to one card to draw. What's worse is if you hit the turn, you won't get paid off.

If you want to raise it to $30-40, that's fine too because it'll give you the proper pot odds to call his all-in, but as I said before I'd put it to $60 so he knows that I'm going all the way with this hand.

And what do you know? OP had 12 outs, just like I thought.

Also, I'll add another thought here -- variance. If you like low variance poker, you should just call the flop here and see what the turn brings and how he bets. Look at it this way...if you raise the $20, what will happen? Hands that have you beat (KJ, AJ, JJ-AA) will call/raise. Hands that you beat (AQ, AK, KQ) will fold. Raising to $20 gives your opponent the opportunity to make the right decision. You need to make a stronger raise if you have any hope of making a pair of jacks or queens fold (which would be the wrong decision for them, but they wouldn't know that). I think at this level, no one's going to lay down KK or AA but if your opponent has those, you still have quite a few outs. Like I said, though, if you want low-variance poker, then you can raise to your $20 and fold like you did, or just call him down while he's making small bets and if you miss the river, you fold.
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