[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
What I'd be deciding between on the river is bet-calling and check-calling, but I really don't know what's best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little buzzed now, but I'll try to present my reasoning...

First of all, my pre-flop cap narrows my hand range a bit. Regardless of how intuitive my opponent is, he can be pretty confident that I have something.

Unfortunately, since I capped his preflop 3-bet, I can't rule out the possibility he has AA. Unless he is suffering from a momentary bout of FPS, not capping the flop vs. my 3-bet virtually eliminates the possibility of AA, so I should be good.

His turn raise gets me thinking... Either he slow-played a flopped set (seems reasonable), turned his set with QQ (also reasonable) or turned a straight with AK (seemed least likely since my aggression pre-flop wouldn't warrant a free-card raise on the flop by him, LAG or not).

In conclusion, everything leading up to the river made it seem as though the only hand I was losing to was AK, and since AK seemed to be the least likely possibility based on my read, I bet out for value.

There is a 99% chance I would have folded to a raise.