[cero_z]

Hi neon,

Good to see you posting again. This post has tons to think about, but I think the play of this hand mostly hinges on how good this "good player" is.

What I would first try to determine here is whether this guy can have 8 outs against me, meaning, can he have made it 400 to go with KJ or J9. Only a terrible or excellent player will make that re-raise pre-flop. I suspect this player would not be capable of that play, or you would've noted his unpredictability. If he could have an OESD, I'd protect the pot with a re-raise, because there's some chance he can have other hands that he'll call with, and a number of river cards might put me in a pretty tough spot. The pot's big, so you don't want to mess around too much if he is drawing very live.

Then, I'd make sure that he's not bad enough to be raising with AA or KK here. Most good players would not make this play, since that bet is very unlikely to be called by a good player unless AA/KK is beaten, and it makes it harder for him to get away from it as the pot grows. Note: You could make an argument that if he has AA/KK, he could make that raise with the plan of not putting another penny in the pot, hoping you'll call and try a river check-raise if you have a monster. He might reason that 2500 is the cheapest he can get to the river. But, this play is very rare from a good player, I think.

So, from your average "good player," the turn raise represents either a set or a bluff, which is drawing dead (something like JJ/99) or has 4 outs (AK, or mayyyyybe AJs). If this is the case, I'd call the turn and check the river (with the intention of getting it all-in), unless an Ace or King fell, in which case I'd make a value bet of 3000 (if you think he could have AJ, you'll have to re-consider a K bet, but in any case this hand is really unlikely, I think).

So, essentially, I'm making the Bruiser-esque play of calling him and then checking, because I think it's so likely that he'll continue to bet the river if he was semi-bluffing with few outs. And of course, he'll bet a blank with TTT, and he'll pay off for sure with it if you bet 3000 on an A/K. I think a Jack is the only card you don't want to see on the river, or possibly a King.

After thinking about it some more, you can make a case for taking the same line if you think he might have 8 outs, except of course that you'd be cautious with many more river cards. The decision hinges on how likely he is to continue to bluff a missed draw. In my experience, people are more likely to follow up when they were bluffing with very few outs, rather than with many, so if an OESD is in the mix, I'd just re-raise the turn.