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Old 11-05-2005, 12:47 PM
Post-Oak Post-Oak is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: NJ
Posts: 184
Default Re: Bellagio 10/20 hand

Duck,

I really do mean that if he has AA or KK he is overplaying his hand (even more so with KK). Hero has shown strength. He raised in EP, he called a reraise, he check called the flop.

I don't mind Villain's raise on the turn as much if he has AK (nothing but a gutshot), but with KK it is pretty horrible. AA I wouldn't be looking to inflate the pot any further on this drawless board either.

So I mean that I hope villain has a set, which is the type of strength he is now representing. I of course don't disallow AA, I just think it is a foolish raise on his part in that spot if that is his holding. Because now he could be facing a pot sized all-in reraise, or a big value bet on the river. How could he fold for a $3K value bet on the river if he has AA? He can't.

He has to know that hero is not drawing, given the action and the board.

The pot is already 100 big blinds after the flop action. Why is villain looking to jam this pot??? He is trying to stack off against AQ or KK? Really he would just be opening himself up to getting stacked by a hand that beats a pair.

I think an overpair would generally call the $500 here. So this guy probably really blew it, but hopefully this is one of those rare set over set situations (cause you are assured of getting his whole stack). Maybe he turned it.

Anyway, most of the times I guess this will either be a badly played AA, or a bluff.

I just don't grasp why people don't understand (not talking about you) that a CALL can show strength. What does he put hero on given the preflop action and his check call on the flop? I mean come on, I would check that turn if checked to and especially just call if bet into. If hero has AQ - good - win a nice pot against his overplayed hand. No need for villain to reopen the betting and raise here with a mere pair.
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