Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
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Ok, I can see the argument that in a 1 time shot after the 4th hand you're risking $8000 to double up with only a 44% chance to do so, but considering you only put up $500 of your money to begin with, the odds say you should gamble.
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You do not have a 44% chance of doubling up. You have an 80%ish chance of doubling up. That 44% figure includes the times you bust out in one of the first three trials, but if you even got this far then you didn't bust out during those trials. The 44% figure only applies if you haven't actually started playing yet.
Think of it this way...the chances of you being dealt AA is 220-to-1. So what are the chances of having AA if you already know one of your cards is an A? According to the voodoo mathematics above, it would still be 220-to-1, which is clearly incorrect.
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