Re: Queens
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not much value in a river bet, imo.
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Could you elaborate? I think his ace would keep pushing on the turn a good majority of the time. I expect him to show down a weaker pair a majority of the time when he calls a river bet.
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After I played this hand I really thought I should've bet the river. But now I'm wavering. You bring up some good points however.
A few things I was thinking of:
1. I'm almost completely ruling out AK-A8, A3 given the preflop/flop play. I just wouldn't see him checking the turn with a fairly good ace given that I just called the flop.
2. His flop/turn play represents a draw a ton of the time.
3. So essentially, if we assume he has a draw a large % of the time, the crux of betting the river seems to be whether he paired up somewhere along the way, with JT or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], etc.
Although this seems like a rare occurrence, I can't really see myself losing this hand the way the action played out (plus my read was only from playing with him for ~50 hands), so I think a bet is probably good here. Marginal, but good.
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