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Old 11-04-2005, 04:30 PM
tewall tewall is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: midwest
Posts: 1,206
Default Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop

[ QUOTE ]
None of the hands you mentioned are going to call a push or likely even bluff at this pot...that's everyones point...if you push against them you are letting them make the right decision...folding...that's the whole point everyone is making...yeah the guy might bluff with total crap...he might not too....if he was going to bluff push over the top of your continuation bet, he's probably going to bluff push the turn too.....why not wait till things look a little better for our hand?

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The reason not to wait for the turn is that there are a lot of cards that can possibly beat you. What's your plan if one of these cards comes up? A heart falling is the most obvious scare card, but there's also an Ace, and straight cards that can come up as well. Why let Villain draw at these for free?

I disagree that Villain is unlikely to come over the top with the hands I mentioned. He was described as aggresive and pissed off. That's just the mind set that someone who is likely to come over the top would have. Also, in the example hands I gave, coming over the top with most of them would be a very reasonable play, as Villain would have the fold equity working for him, as well as being able to hit in many cases good draws (around 40%).

If the remaining stacks were smaller, I would like checking behind better, because you could induce someone with nothing to bet on the turn, and wouldn't be able to bet enough on the flop to make calling the flop unprofitable. In this scenario waiting makes sense. However, as things are the stacks are large enough that Hero can protect his hand by betting.

I still don't know what your plan is on the turn. What do you do if a heart or and Ace comes on the turn and Villain bets?

If you look at the range of hands Villain might have, and what would happen if Hero bets 150 vs. if he checks, I would be extremely surprised if checking works out better than betting. But I'm willing to be proven wrong. Make some assumptions, and show me the math.
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