Re: When to call with a draw HU
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I didn't go all in preflop because I figured he'd only call w/ JJ or higher pair, or mabye AK
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This isn't true, and if it were, it would be great...you'd take the pot down preflop like 90% of the time! Picking up 900 chips in the pot right now without confrontation would be ideal.
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I would have been outchipped 3:1; that means it would take 2 all ins, winning both, to win. (I know this isn't how it would play out, but it's a good first order approximation.)
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Personally I don't feel this is a good approximation. You should be looking to push and win blinds without confrontation, so ideally you're picking up his blind frequently enough that you aren't having to face an all in confrontation to build a stack. The concept of fold equity and winning pots without confrontation is very important when the blinds start to become this big. Like I said, I'd rather be pushing garbage than calling an all in with a really weak hand. When you're pushing hands preflop they'll fold a good percentage of the time, and if you get called you have to outdraw them when behind. Here you simply have to outdraw them with no chance of him folding.
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Assuming even money on each all-in, I've got 25% odds. This means that folding should be slightly preferred to calling, but it really is a close call.
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This thinking is really flawed. You pushing all in does not guarantee a call, as hopefully you'll be picking up blinds. If you're aggressively trying to steal blinds then having a stack to do so is much better than taking a -EV stab at a pot.
-SonnyJay
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