Re: pstars deepstack 20$ hand
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I think you played it fine until the turn. I fold there.
Sure, villan made a bad call with his gutshot, but with a 4-straight on the turn, the value of your top 2 has gone way down. What could he flat-call your flop raise with that you are still beating on the turn?
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AT, KT, QT, JT, A9, K9, Q9, J9, T7, T6, 97, 96 all look more likely than 88 after the flop action. probably some others too.
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What about 66,77?
The given range seems optimistic to me when assessing the hand has played out until the turn. Villan cc's preflop, cc's on the flop, calls the massive c/r and then bets the turn when we check. It sure looks to me like he got there, or was already there on the flop.
I think we can narrow his range alot here. Given all the donkish calls, I would really be worried about a mid-pp. Highcards and/or overpair would have re-raised pre-flop and/or ditched the flop, TT-99 are unlikely given our holdings, and I doubt 22-55 would stick around after all this action.
Also, we aren't getting the odds to try to fill up on the river if we think we are behind, and there are a few bad cards that can come out on the river even if we think we are ahead.
I just don't think it is weak-tight to fold the 4-straight turn given all the information we have here. Donk-villan is giving us a great opportunity to make a big laydown, and I would take it.
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