Re: Variance and Volitility
[ QUOTE ]
I'm still a bit unclear on how Standard deviation would apply to online poker when people generally don't play in uniform sessions. Sometimes I'll play for a 1/2 hour, sometimes 2 or 3. I believe it's faulty reasoning to assume that if you win $50 in an hour that you would've won $100 had you played for two.
[/ QUOTE ]
In your example, it is faulty reasoning to assume that your winrate of $50/hr. over a 1 hr. period will be sustained in perpetuity. Poker is a game with large fluctuations in one's winrate.
However, over the long run, you will have a certain winrate (BB/hr or BB/100 hands) through the use of detailed records, and your standard deviation determines how much individual swings in your winrate can deviate from your long-term winrate.
|