Re: KTo misses, turn raise.
I often make plays like this with A-high on a low ragged board - but only when I feel the villain is capable of higher level thinking and figures I have missed the board with my overcards, so there's a decent chance he's making a move. Do you feel this way about this villain?
K-high is a little more tricky, as it even further reduces the range of hands we can beat (assuming we're not bluffing again on the river).
Question is: putting in 2 bets to win 5-6 bets, will K-high showdown to win more than about 1 third of the time here?
It's a very close call.
However, the confounding factor here is that you mentioned you wouldn't put any more bets into this pot... BUT, if he 3-bets the turn, you're getting 9:1 money for a call to potentially improve with a Ten or King. Again, *this* is a very close call here.
In conclusion, it seems like a sequence of *marginal* plays here, each of which barely gain us any EV. This seems like we're pouring in a hella lotta bets into this pot just to try to break even. Accordingly, a turn fold is probably the best play.
Adam
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