[JojoDiego]

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It's very hard to protect your hand on this 15-SB flop. It looks like you checked intending to check-raise, and if it had been checked around to the MP3, who bet, then your raise would have faced 2 players with a tough call if they held overcards or something weird. But the guy on your left bet, so I'm thinking you should have abandoned your plan when he bet, and called to see the turn.

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Jojo, I don't mean to pick on you specifically, but your comments here are an excellent example of a common misunderstanding of where profit comes from in poker.

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I'm grateful you responded specifically to my post--I'm desperately trying to get better, and this kind of direct dialogue really helps.


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In the OP's hand, if he knew that button was going to bet, then he should go for the c/r. It would be nice to fold out weak draws, since that earns more than just betting out, but getting them to incorrectly pay 2 bets on a weak draw is usually better yet. [The math is slightly different for multiway hands, but generally isn't different enough to change the concept that villain making a mistake is better for hero than villian playing correctly. See the FTOP section in TOP for more details on this].

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The problem with c/ring this particular hand is, as many have pointed out, that after hero 3-bet PF, people are going to be unwilling to bet and it might get checked around.

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Is it really that bad if it's checked around on the flop? You then bet out on the turn giving callers only 4-1 pot odds or so. Or raise if the SB bets, facing the field with even worse odds.

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It's REALLY bad to let weak draws hang around for no bets, especially when the board is so coordinated.

If you knew for a fact that someone would bet both the flop and turn, then an argument could be made to wait for the turn. But, generally speaking, slowplaying a non-monster hand like QQ in a big pot is a huge mistake.

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So, since there's very little chance a flop bet protects our hand, the flop bet is almost purely a value bet--correct? If so, what about what SSHE says in the footnote on p. 165 following the discussion of a K-K hand in a very large pot:

"Sometimes you should forgo a small edge on the flop if doing so allows you to exploit a bigger edge on the turn."

And on p. 166:

"Is the pot on the flop so large that you expect no one to fold, even for a raise? If so, consider waiting for the turn."

Now, the K-K example hand that prompted this text in SSHE was significantly different than the OP's hand. Among other things, a villain directly to the hero's right bets out on the flop, so the hand can't get checked around. I take it this wait-for-the-turn tactic should not apply in this Q-Q hand? If that's correct, why not?

One last thing: Does the phrase in the p. 166 quote "even for a raise?" suggest that you should also consider the wait-for-the-turn tactic if you're faced with a bet-the-flop/check-the-flop decision in a situation like the K-K hand in SSHE? In other words, if it's checked to the hero in the K-K hand, should he check or bet?

Thank you in advance.