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Old 11-03-2005, 03:16 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 96
Default Re: JJ: Playing with an overcard on BOARD

I don't particularly like betting this flop, honestly.

It basically seems that betting this flop is more or less committing to getting raised and then either dumping right there or on the turn.

UTG's limp-reraise followed by check is probably an action play with suited connectors. Jake's post a few months back showed that this kind of thing is as likely to be going on with suited connectors or even weirder stuff than it is with AA or KK.

So I'm more concerned with the pre-flop three-bettor (edit). We are not totally far behind his range at this point, as TT, 99, and AK are all possibilities. Importantly, I think we are getting raised by all of those hands a substantial portion of the time. In other words, us betting and getting raised more or less tells us nothing most of the time (unless it UTG check-three-bets or something).

When we consider that there is very little chance that this flop gets checked through, that we can easily dump our hand to a bet and a UTG check-raise (and save ourself that initial feeler bet), that any hand that has even a few outs to our hand isn't going anywhere in a pot this size (particularly AK), and that a blank turn card will greatly help to define our equity, it is quite clear to me:

HERO SHOULD HAVE CHECKED THE FLOP!

More of then not betting just puts us in a position like hero found himself in, which basically sucks (particularly as we probably should call a flop raise for the reasons SeaEagle mentioned).

My preferred line on this hand:

Check-call the flop (folding to a bet+check-raise). Donk a blank turn (folding to a raise, a donk-bet from UTG, or if the turn card is an A or K). Reevaluate on the river.
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