[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
I played against a guy at $100 NL that pulled a similar stunt. He raised preflop, i flat called with 33, flop comes 3 5 6 with 2 of a suit, and he open pushes for $400 with AA...i happily call with $300 and double through....see my point

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I absolutely see your point.

And I acknowledge that the times when the button flops a big made hand, we are getting stacked.

But that alone does not make pushing a bad play here. The only thing that ultimately matters is the EV of all the possible plays. Sometimes we lost becasue the opponent flops big. But other times -- far more frequently -- the opponent flops rags and we win the ~$50 pot.

Now, I edited my original post to indicate that the button will not make egregious postflop errors. Given the coordinated nature of this board, most postflop errors will be egregious. There won't be many marginal decisions here. So we may conclude that the opponentr won't be mmaking many mistakes here, no matter what we do.

Given that, don't we want to bring this hand to a close immediately?

Can anyone give me a probability range for the opponent here? This is my estimate:

[ QUOTE ]
Flopped big hand, like a set: 10%
Flopped big draw, like 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]: 10%
Flopped marginal made hand, like 20%
Flopped rags/weak draw, like 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 60%

[/ QUOTE ]