[w_alloy]

I think after you cap preflop and he leads this flop I would call down, betting if checked to. I like raising against people who you can feel comfortable folding if they play back. I don't think this is true for this guy. You are likely w/a w/b on the flop after he leads.

I barely wouldnt raise the river and call a 3 bet. The only hands that beat you ar AK or KQ clubs, AQ, and KK.

KK 3 combos
AQ 16 discounted to 4 for flop bet/3bet
AcKc/KcQc 2 disc to 1.5 for turn 3 bet
Donk factor clubs and random Q: 1
9.5 total

Hands we are ahead of:

TT 3
AA 6 discounted to 4 for river lead
KJ 12 discounted to 3.5, he shouldnt raise preflop or lead river after cap
AK 11 discounted to 2.5, he should slow down on turn/river
KQ 11 discounted to 1, same as above
JJ 1 discounted to .5 for split
Laggy 3/6 donk factor: 4, including 55, KT, and random hands

This give us 18.5.

We need to be ahead twice as often as behind, so this is a very close call without the all in and an easy one with it. I think the turn cap is very easy. I'm sure some will disagree with my discounting. Exactly how laggy he is could sway things one way or the other easily. Also, you dont need to be ahead twice as often on the river he he only 3 bets worse hands. I guess if calling is the best play, it means it is +ev and I should add a bit for that too, but I really think it is close to break-even.

Edit: I changed my opinion after dicounting AA