Re: To call down or not to call down, part 3
UTG probably doesn't have 98, though it is possible, and that's the draw that got there. So I don't see the T helping him all that much. Ax of diamond is certainly a possibility.
We are getting 11.5 to 2 on a call down, so we need to be good around 15% of the time here. We spike a set 5% of the time which is good unless villian did have 98 or KK, neither of which is likely, or AQ which is actually plausable so we only have to be ahead here around 12% of the time to make a calldown profitable, and I think we are.
A read would help here, some UTG would only raise w/ a K or better, but I certainly wouldn't assume that of an unknown 30/60 player.
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