Re: 100/200 bluff hand
According to your range without the occasional random stuff:
A4+: 4 aces and 36 cards over 4 = 144
Any 2 over 9 (excluding 9x): 44 + 24 + 16 = 84
Any pair: 54 + 2 + 6 = 62
Total: 290
EV 84/290 = 29.0% of the time when he has any 2 over 9: +6.5BBs
Assumptions because I'm lazy: He always checks the river, and you always win when you spike a 9 or J. Oh yeah, he doesn't 3-bet the turn.
6 outs = 14.3%
14.3%*(+8.5BB) = 1.2155BB
85.7%*(-2BB) = 1.714
= - .4985BBs
So when he has any 2 over 9 29% of the time you make +6.5BBs . Otherwise, given the assumptions 71% of the time you lose .4985BBs, 1.885-0.353935 = +1.501065BBs. This estimate leaves out the times when he has something like AA and the river is a 9 and he checkraises you and you fold or calls your bet.
Note: I did this in a hurry, so there might be mistakes.
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