Re: On the Edge - IX
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I'm with SW on this one. Given your read, it makes much more sense to wait and pop the turn then 3-bet the flop. Your equity isn't that great. Waiting for the turn allows you to:
1. Evaluate the turn card. a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] likely kills your hand, and non-paint non-straight completing cards should give you a little concern.
2. Represent greater strength. The flop call turn raise sets off alarms in just about everyone's head. Now he may have a harder time showing down a hand like 43o. Your flop 3-bet could very well just be overs with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
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This is a very good point and I definitely don't think it would've been bad to do just that. And perhaps it would've been the better play. The reason I didn't go this way is that I couldn't have the river option that I did.
So on the flop, I bet, he CRs, I call, on the turn he bets, I raise, and now he...
(1) folds. Perfect. And this might've happened.
(2) calls. Now there is trouble. I've been thinking about how people sometimes feel "invested" in a pot, and it has psychological ramifications, but it's something like this: some people when they get raised on the turn almost take it as an affront and will call, and then check-call the river (especially in the fear in my article that somewhere along the line he picked up bottom / near bottom pair). If only to get satisfaction to see what I'm raising with. By doing it on the flop, while I'm sacrificing .5 BB (1 SB on the flop vs. 1 BB with the raise on the turn), I don't think you get people as invested as it's much more common.
This has NOTHING to do with my article, by the way, as I didn't make this part of the narrative, even though it was part of my thinking and is in these situations, and I certainly haven't worked out the theory enough to make it fit correctly, but, again, the turn raise is obviously a great play and a lot of times with another situation I would call the flop and then raise the turn, but I wanted the chance of blowing him off his hand IF he caught a piece, and I think (right or wrong) that you get people "invested" sometimes with those turn raises and then they call out of frustration / table image / whatever and then check-call the river.
I could go on ... but maybe you see the point as to why I went my way and not another, as I didn't mind that .5BB since I thought it would increase my chances at the pot.
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What's your plan if he doesn't fire at the river? Bet, I assume?
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Yes.
By the way, Despot had a good post above as to another reason to go with my line:
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Have to disagree here Stellar. If Barron's read is that Tony is c/ring a draw, then three-betting the flop is much better. By 3-betting the flop, you can bet any non-heart turn and river, and raise any scare card donk. If you try "calling down" with queen-high, all you're going to do is pay off Tony's better hands as he proceeds to jam any pair to the river. The only way you make money is when Tony jams a busted flush to the river and you call with a better nothing hand. This happens pretty rarely, since Tony may well check-fold the river UI.
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Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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