Re: Fancy play syndrome.
I think your heart is too high for this line. The problem I think is that he will call down with any heart and any Ace and possibly a few others if you keep betting. But if you check the turn, he will often check behind you. When he does check behind, I don't think you will have gained hardly any additional river calls by feigning weakness on the turn. In other words, practically every hand that will call the river here would have called the turn and river had you kept betting. I also don't think you will induce many bluffs, because he probably knows that you aren't going to check-fold the turn here after checkraising the flop.
So it looks like to me that:
1) When he has the K of hearts you save one bet.
2) When he has something that he would have folded to a turn bet, you sometimes gain one or more bets but usually gain none.
3)When he has a worse hand that will call your river bet you usually lose 1 bet (because he would have called the turn also), and occasionally lose two or more bets when he would have raised on the turn.
That said, I'm sure you know better than I do. Where is my thinking flawed?
Thanks,
Cartman
|