My picks
$400 Seahawks/Cardinals UNDER
$300 Colts/Patriots UNDER
$200 Ravens
$100 Chargers/Jets UNDER
It's a home dog bonanza this week and yet I can't really get excited about any of them. I guess that's the beauty of the HD strategy -- they look so ugly that squares like myself (even ones who know HD's are generally strong bets) can't bring themselves to bet them.
FWIW, I expect the lines to look a lot more appealing by the weekend and I'll be looking to get some games like NE+3.5, NYJ+7, Bal+3.5, Ari+6. And if the lines move more than I expect maybe Mia+3, Hou+14, TB+3 & SF+13. And if the lines don't move, several of these HD's look real nice in teasers.
Seahawks/Cardinals UNDER 43.5 Seahawks have put up big totals a couple of times, but are generally a ball control team. Ari has only scored over 20 once ... against the 49ers.
Colts/Patriots UNDER 46 There will be some offense, but solid D's will force a lot of FG's.
Ravens+3 v. Bengals Had to pick at least one home dog. I like Bal the best with these lines. Should be a low scoring game, I'll take the FG.
Chargers/Jets UNDER 41.5 Jets anemic offense won't contribute much. Chargers happy to grind out the clock with a lead.
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