Re: blackjack ?
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IA friend asks: Is it +ev to double down with blackjack (a+10) if the dealer shows a 6? (His argument is that a 6 may bust more than 75% of the time to make the 4-2 favored over 3-2)
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You would need to be better than a 7-to-1 favorite to win the double, which means you must win over 87.5% of all unpushed hands, not just 75%. That's because if you lose, you lose the 1.5 bets that were already yours for the BJ, plus the 2 bets you have out for the double, for a total loss of 3.5 bets. If you win, you only win 0.5 bet more than you would have by just taking the 1.5 for the BJ. So you are giving odds of 3.5-to-0.5 or 7-to-1 by making this play.
This would never be correct by basic strategy or off the top of the deck. You would need an extremely high count, such as if all the unseen cards were known to be tens.
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