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Old 11-01-2005, 07:08 PM
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Default Re: On the Edge - IX

I liked all of the play postflop, but Im not a fan of the preflop raise with trash for two reasons:

(1) villain's failure to openraise his post, after habitually having done so for the past several hours, is suspicious. Given the tightness of the blinds, the lack of an openraise could well signify a big hand;

(2) this opponent is tricky, and I have no preflop equity. Even assuming the blinds are weak-tight folders, villain clearly doesn't like to lay down preflop or on the flop. So based on Barron's reads, if you play a hand against Tony you're going until at least 4th street, and he may well checkraise at some point to take control of the action. The only way to respond to such aggression is to use your position and get aggressive yourself--by three betting, raising the river, etc. While I dont have a problem doing so, taking this approach is best with a hand that has some showdown value, i.e., an ace, a pair, two big broadway cards, etc. Q6o doesn't cut it. It is a below-average hand in terms of preflop equity, so by openraising the blind, you're essentially committing yourself to spewing chips on a substandard hand. The only way this line works is if (1) you think you can "outplay" the villain, AND (2) villain himself misses the flop enough that your aggression can convince him to lay down a better hand. The second point is essential to note--guys like Tony hate folding. They will call down with TPNK, a decent middle pair, a pair and a draw, basically anything with plausible showdown value.

Botton line. Once in the pot, I think Barron played it fine. But I would have avoided the situation entirely by folding preflop, because I think that openraising against players like Tony has zero steal equity, probably close to zero EV, at the expense of adding significant variance to your results.
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