[gharp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't have six outs, but you don't have zero either. I'm thinking around 4-4.5 (1 for the 2's, 3 for the straight). I'm still check/folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this can't be right. One opponent shows aggression pf. Both show agression on the flop. The pre-flop aggressor is likely on A + high card, or a good pair that he's trying to make good by bullying the flop. The BB has a wider range, but has also raised the flop. What could he have? Certainly not 45s for the gutshot. 33 and 55 are the scariest possibilities. A4s is possible.

So given that any 4 improves me to the second nut straight (only losing to the unlikely 56s gutshot flop raise in the BB), I'd have to say that almost all 4 outs are good there.

Either 2 is also really good. It loses to 4 possible hands: AA by the pre-flop aggressor, 33 or 55 by the BB, and A4 by the big blind (ignoring the redraws--can I ignore the redraws?). So what percentage of the time will those hands come up vs. other hands? 5% = 1.9 outs? It seems that most of the 2s are good as well.

So maybe I have something like 5.85 outs. How much did I lose by putting more money in on the flop? This can't be an easy fold. But maybe I'm missing something. Course, it would be even better if I could think of this stuff while I was playing.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think your analysis is a little skewed because of the way the action went. I'll agree that if you had checked and it had been bet and raised behind you, you could think it's more likely that all your outs were clean (I think you still wouldn't have odds to call). But when you lead the flop you can't be thinking that -- you don't have the information yet that the BB will raise. Also, BB's raise puts him all-in which greatly increases his hand range. I don't think you can count on him not having a 4 or 2 (which decreases your outs).


Also, I just caught this from the OP:

[ QUOTE ]
Question: On the flop, 6 outs gives me 1 to 3 on the following to streets, so with three players I'm not losing money by betting here?

[/ QUOTE ]
This isn't quite right. You would be getting about 3:1 on your money (if you had six outs), but that means you need more than 3 other people contributing to the pot to have an equity edge. Here you have two (plus one of them has no money).