[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]

then do the math and report back w/ results, assumtions, methodology.

Barron

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Here’s a stab at the math with a WAG at ranges:

Passive hand raising ranges pflop for UTG+1:
TT-AA, AJs+, AK, AQ,AJ, KQs,

HJ 3bets JJ-AA, AKs, AQs?
Cold calls: 55-TT, AT-AK, ATs, AJs, KQs, KQ, KJs, KJ?

Board: Ks 2c 3h Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.7339 % 26.73% 00.00% { 6h4h }
Hand 2: 35.0621 % 32.76% 02.30% { TT, AJs, KQs, QTs, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 38.2039 % 35.91% 02.30% { TT-55, AJs-ATs, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+ }

Call it 25% equity on the turn as and estimate.
Pot on the turn = 6.5SB + 3SB = 9.5/2 = 4.25 BB
Assume hero folds the river UI..

Hero check, intending to call:
If HJ raises 7.25:2 = Fold.
Otherwise Pot on the river is 7.25BB (counting hero’s turn call)
Assume 1 BB of implied odds on the river on average when hero improves, bets, and is called by at least 1 person.
So this line = spend 2BB to win 7.25BB.
.25 x 7.25 = +1.8BB
.75 x (-1) = -.75

Check/call = +1.05BB

Chk-raise turn:
Assume no 3bet, HJ calls.
River pot = 4.25 + 6 = 10.25BB
Same assumption as above (i.e. gain 1BB on river on average):
.25 x 9.25 = +2.3 BB
.75 x (-2) = -1.5

Chk/raise = +.8 BB

When 3bet, assume CO folds for 2:
River pot = 4.25 + 7 = 11.25.
.25 x (11.25 – 3) = +2.06BB
.75 x (-3) = -2.25 BB

Chk-raise/3bet = -.19.

If CO calls the turn 3bet (or 3bets and UTG+1 Calls):
.25 x (13.25 – 3) = +2.6 BB
.75 x (-3) = -2.25BB
Chk-raise/3bet/CO calls = +.3 BB

So when 3bet, the 3rd player must call at least .3(x) = .2 = 66% to break even.

So, if never 3bet:
Chk-call is 1-.8 = +.2BB compared to chk-raising the turn.

So the chk-raise needs to fold both players enough to make up that .2-.3BB difference (assume .1BB loss for being 3bet).

F%(6.25) – 2(1-F%) = .3
8.25F% = 2.3
F% = 27%

You need to fold out both players something like 20-30% of the time to make chk-raising better than chk-calling If this is correct...