Thread: Thriller
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Old 11-01-2005, 11:59 AM
catlover catlover is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 125
Default Re: Thriller

Preflop: fold. I know the suited connector is pretty but it just isn't good enough to play here.

Flop: definitely peel.

Turn: If you aren't going to c/r bluff with straight and flush draws, when will you ever make that play?

I disagree with the posters who say check and call is obvious. I think check raising is better.

Math problem -- how often does your c/r need to steal the pot to make it worth while? It depends on the frequency with which you will be reraised, and also the frequency with which you fold out one opponent but not both, so the answer is somewhat vague. But it will surely come out under 15% of the time -- and may even come out under 10%.

Basically, when you have a strong chance of drawing out, the EV loss when you don't succeed in stealing it is not that large. But the EV gain of a successful steal is still enormous. So go for it.
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