Re: Down by 2 touchdowns, go for 2 theory.
I wrote about this exact same thing a long time ago on another forum. Literally millions of people already know this idea (which is even stronger than you imply because two point conversions are over 40% and one pointers are less than 100%.)
As for
"The problems is that coaches get blasted for unconventional gambles that don't work, but get only a bit of credit for gambles that do. You will be fired if you miss two 2-pt attempts in a playoff game and lose by 2."
I don't buy it. Not when it is so clear cut. (I've read the "losing momentum or morale" argument but for professionals that can't make up for a significant decrease in mathematical win probability.) All a coach has to do is show the simple math to the owner, preferabley BEFORE it comes up, and he is out of hot water if it backfires.
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