Re: JJ and overcard in big pot
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You think he's calling with less than a pair of Queens 50% of the time? I don't.
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The break even point probably isn't 50% given the chances he doesn't have a queen.
Hypothetical:
25% of the time he has the queen, and calls 100% of the time.
75% of the time, he doesn't have the queen, and calls X% of the time.
We only need a call ~33% of the time he has second best for us to break even (if the chances he has a queen are right). I think a fish is calling much more than that, even UI. Plus, there's some fold equity, albeit small, when he does have it. It's close, but I think this is a value bet situation even if the chances he does have a queen are higher.
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