Re: I spew
Preflop: standard
Flop: excellent
Turn: Your 3-bet is a must. Obviously you call the cap.
River:
Given the turn action, villain most likely has one of two hands:
(i) An overplayed lesser set (i.e. 77 or 22)
(ii) A made flush.
If he has a lessor set, he'll still call your river bet for the showdown. However, if you check the river, he'll check it through as well. Most importantly, if he has 77 or 22, he doesn't have a flush because both the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are on the board. Further, given your turn aggression there is next to nil chance he's going to bluff-raise this river.
If he has a flush, depending on how high his kicker is, he'll either raise or call if you bet the river. He's not folding. If you check the river, he's betting his flush more than not, and you will call.
Given the overall action, I'd estimate there's roughly a 50%/50% chance of distribition between villain having the lower set vs. a flush.
As we see above, half the time we bet the river we'll get called with a lessor hand (win 1 bet). The other half we'll lose to a better hand, or fold if raised on the river (lose1 bet). NET = 0.5(1) + 0.5(-1) = 0 bets
If we check, half the time a worse hand is checking through (0 bets won or lost). The other half, villain will bet and we'll call with a lessor hand (down 1 bet).
NET = 0.5(0) + 0.5(-1) = -0.5 bets.
Thus, betting the river is the better play.
Note: I am disregarding QQ as a possible holding since CO didn't 3-bet preflop. I am also not including the times villain has the likes of an overplayed two-pair like 9,7 or Q,9 - as these will be rare occurences.
In conclusion, whether you meant to or not, you played this hand perfectly. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
Adam
|