[Gramps]

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Since party decided to split from the skins, other than the first 3 or 4 days after, I have had my worst run ever in the 215's over my last 550 or so, and I am wondering if any of the other people who play there have had similar results. Yes, it could be a deviation, but the fact that I am seeing 2-3 pros at most every table now is making me think there may be more to it than that. Sure, it may just be more obvious now who the pros are, but could it also be that there were many pros out there who didn;t really want to hassle with another account and such, then just popeed open a few more when given the opportunity by the new Party table limits? I'm not sure what the exact answer is, but I'm relatively sure that the $215 game has changed signifcantly since the switch, from being beatable by upwards of 20% since the new level went in to possibly 10% or even less. Anyone else have any insight on this?

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The long-run can be a biatch.

I also ran ice cold for 500 SNGs after the split, about breaking even over the period. Of course, right before that cold stretch (but still after the split), I ran hot at close to 20% for 500, so...IMO, not too much has changed in the past 3 weeks.

It has been easier to notice who the good players are (and conversely, for people to notice who you are), as the 8-tablers are now playing on 1 account instead of two. Still, a game in which near-20% returns are possible over the long-long-run is not a game I've ever recognized in the 215s absent some great game-selection/weekend-only playing/specific opponent tendency tracking, etc...

I fall into the Irie-camp in that long-run ROI numbers in the 215s are consistenly overinflated. I know there are a number of players out there with better long-run (>5,000 SNGs) than I, but regardless of who you are, ~$10,000 downswings happen, they f--k your ROI numbers up tremendously. You may go thousands of SNGs without more than a $5,000 to $6,000 downswing, and then you hit two of those puppies (the ~$10k downswings) in a span of like 2,000 SNGs (or less) and your ROI numbers get totally shat on. But...people look at those downswings as the "aberration," while not thinking of the super-hot streaks as the "aberrations" that they are as well.

Point being, I've now played well over 10,000 215s, they are a little tougher than when I started playing them 15 months ago, but I haven't noticed any change in the past few months (other than recognizing people a tad bit more, for the reasons stated above). Any recent downswing is due to simple "deviation" IMO.