Re: Guys, it\'s not about the money or the 9K swing, thats not it at all
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You think that 30-60 on PP is softer than 30-60 at bellagio?
I'm not talking about the tables with three vegas grinders on them, either. I'm talking about the tables with your run of the mill mediocre tourist players.
Why would I not want to play in a game that I can beat?
I can't beat 30 on PP, but i'm 5 for 6 in vegas....
What's the word, dcrifr?
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jesus christ man. for the last time, your results over small samples are just that, small sample returns. your posterior belief, given that you played 10k hands at party and won $X was that you are good enough to play the party 30/60. after 80k hands, you had a prior belief based on 10k hands and it has changed after another 70k hands. NOW, your posterior belief is that you are NOT good enough to play the party 30/60.
similarly, being 5/6 in vegas can be analagous to your first 10k hands at party. irrespective of the quality of the games in vegas, im talking about your analysis about which games you should be playing. your prior in vegas is now that you've won 5/6 times and you're good enough to play X/2X limit. you see, its the same method you used at party to play the 30/60...except now you've learned that 10k (or analagously 5/6 wins) is not good enough to determine your win rate.
i agree vegas games on average are better than party games of a similar limit(or even a limit above etc.) ...i took issue with your statement that given your short term results in vegas, you are good enough to play "higher" limits in vegas. very simple elementary probability theory at work here.
FINALLY, and you should answer this question b/c everybody has asked and i dont see you ever answer it: how do you know you have played 80k hands if you dont have a tracking program like pokertracker? where do you get that #? do you keep results for vegas? how many hours have you played in those 6 times? what were your results? w/o records, everything is meaningless and you can NEVER adjust your beliefs based on your results b/c you have no results to adjust from.
Barron
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