[scdavis0]

It's about the depth of stacks and villain's possible hand range.

You leave money on the table if he has a big made hand.

You leave money on the table if he has a big draw (by allowing him to play more optimally).

You are overestimating the percent of time that villain bets turn (which you seem to place at 100%).

You are overestimating the amount of extra money you make when he's on a pure bluff or has a hand like TT.

You allow yourself to potentially catastrophic mistakes. Suppose villain had checked the turn. It seems crazy to check behind with top set. Prepare to vomit if you get check raised all-in though. Could he ever check-raise all in on an insane bluff?

He's going to have a set, overpair, big draw x% of the time. He's going to have a total bluff, weak made hand, weaker draw y% of the time.

He has so much money behind, and x% is sufficiently large that it's +EV to try to play a huge pot on the flop than to try to pick off some baby bluff.

If the flop was more dry, it would make sense to just call. Nothing that hits on the turn save a K or A is likely to slow villain down or sare us.