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Old 10-31-2005, 03:12 PM
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Default Re: Out of line line with AJs in blinds?

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SSHE states, and it has been reiterated on this board, that building the pot is not always the correct way to play a draw, especially if you have additional over cards that win you the pot. My hand is strong here I don't see any reason to play it as you have stated.

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You can actually work out what the best play is here. You have about 1/3 equity on the flop, assuming a flush is the only way to win. So your share of the pot after the extra 8 SB is put in is 5.5 SB.

If you could somehow get it heads up by check-raising, and you were sure this cleaned up your overcard outs, then you might gain at the absolute maximum 3 outs (assuming you aren't against AQ or something), which would increase your share of the now only 12.5 SB pot to 5.7 SB. Given the flop raise I don't think you can count your Js as outs. I think a realistic count would be maybe 0.5 for the Js and 1.5 for the As.

So protecting is only slightly profitable in the most optimistic situation. It also carries the additional downside that you have lost the two folks on the flop that might have padded the pot on the turn making your flush draw even more profitable on later streets.

Edit: I can see why you played it that way, but this is one of those borderline cases where taking down the pot now is not quite as profitable as building it, IMRC (im my rough calculation). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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