Re: Theoretical problem about coinflips
[ QUOTE ]
but blind sizes are rarely negligible. Why worry about a situation that is basicly never going to happen. I assume there must be a reason, but I don't understand it.
[/ QUOTE ]
We never really KNOW we are in a coinflip situation either, but these kinds of things can be assumed if we are just trying to generalize.
If it really bothers you that blind sizes are negligible, assume that that blind sizes can be ignored becasue you know (or estimate) that you are a slight underdog. here is a concrete example:
Player A) t1500
Player B) t1500
Player C) t1000
Player D) t6000
You are player D. Blinds are 50/100 and you are in the BB with AQ. All fold to player C who pushes all in. For some reason (very good read? Flashed cards?) you know he has a medium pair and you know that you are a slight underdog. It really doesn't matter what you or he have, just assume that your best estimate is that you will win this hand 46% of the time if you call.
So, if you fold:
Player A) 1500, with an equity of .2148
Player B) 1500, with an equity of .2148
Player C) 1100, with an equity of .1699
Player D) 5900, with an equity of .4004
if you call, possible outcomes are
win (.46)
Player C) 0, with an equity of 0
Player D) t7000 with an equity of .4347
lose (.54)
Player C) .2387
Player D) .3704
so, your total equity is ((.54)(.3704)+(.46)(.4347))=.3999
You should fold, though I admit it is very close.
Is everyone content to fold in a situation like this?
Regards
Brad S
|