View Single Post
  #6  
Old 10-31-2005, 03:12 AM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: New Jersey - near A.C.
Posts: 511
Default I haven\'t read this book but

since I'm in a hair-splitting mood . . .

Your pot equity with a flush draw is not 35% on the flop nor is it 20% on the turn.

Those are accurate %s for MAKING your hand; pot equity refers specifically to your chance of WINNING the hand.

If your flush draw is not to the nuts you could lose to a higher flush; even if it is to the nuts you could lose to a full house if the final board contains a pair.

I am not saying these draws should be folded; I'm not even saying it's wrong to be raising with them.

I just wanted to clear up a minor point that actually isn't that minor.

Think about a draw to gutshot non-nut straight when there is a 2-flush or pair on board.

If the pot is large enough it may be correct to draw to this miracle but your chance of hitting it - approx. 15% on the flop / 8% on the turn - is NOT the same as having pot equity of 15% /8% respectively.

Your pot equity is equal to:

When you are drawing (and therefore by definition not ahead) your chance of hitting your hand multiplied by the chance you'll win if you do hit.

When you are ahead - i.e. they are drawing - your pot equity is equal to the chance that none of them will "get there".

In actuality, unless your hand is unbeatable on the flop or turn you are always drawing; when you are ahead you are drawing to blanks that help none of those who are drawing/chasing.

I hope that helped.
Reply With Quote