Re: Is this a rare raise/fold river situation?
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Im sorry, why is everyone afraid of the gutshot getting there? Wouldn't this likely be some shitty 2 pair that you have crushed?
Unless Im seeing something incorrectly, Im raising without a second thought...
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its not really that easy. you are costing yourself money by raising this. here's why:
a) just by sheer bayes theorem, its more likely that he had a pair + gutshot on the turn and hit a straight on the river than it is that he had a pair+gutshot on the turn and hit 2 pair on the river.
b) raising and folding to a 3bet costs you more a little bit of value in two ways: one, he may fold 2 pair but he will never ever ever fold the nuts. two ,he will always 3bet with the nuts, and he may even 3bet without the nuts if he think theres a reasonable chance you are raise folding (although this is extremely unlikely). this means you gain slightly less than 2 bets when ahead and you lose slightly more than 2 bets when behind.
so in general only point 1 is needed to make it a call instead of a raise, but point 2 is even more reason.
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