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Old 10-30-2005, 08:33 PM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,582
Default Re: Too tight or just right?

Although QJ and also hands like QTs/KTs can't be ruled out for Villain, it's more likely that one of you has a two-outer on the turn, and it's hard to say which of you that is.

I would bet the turn. I kind of doubt Villain will fold a better pocket pair or the other two jacks on the turn, but you never know. He's more likely to fold a worse pocket pair, which would now be looking at two overcards (including a dreaded ace), but that's okay. You're only losing value if you can get a bet out of the worse unimproved pair on the river. Otherwise, you're just giving infinite odds. (Or, if you're sure you're beat, you're saving a bet and chasing your weak draw for free. But I'm not at all sure you're beat.)

Anyway, I would probably call the river. I'd be expecting to lose, though. Villain's stats say he's not all that aggressive postflop, so when he bets the river, I'm thinking the chances he just has 99 or 77 or even J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] just went down (though your turn check did encourage that bet). Also, it's entirely possible he whiffed on a turn checkraise with his TT/88/AT. And there are other ways you could be behind.

I think the turn check would gain more merit if you had a read that Villain was very likely to fire on the river, no matter what he held, after your show of weakness on the turn.

Edit: Also, if you're confident that (1) Villain won't fold a better hand on the turn, and (2) a bet from Villain on the river will reliably tell you you're beat, then that's another scenario where I'd consider checking the turn.
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