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Old 10-30-2005, 04:57 PM
POKhER POKhER is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: .50/1 At Stars - LONDON, UK.
Posts: 590
Default Re: Pot Equity value for different hands

Firstly, You need to learn the mathmatics(basic) behind it.

So if we have a flush draw WHICH HAS 9 OUTS(we assume these outs are clean and we know our opponents hold none of these cards)
9 Outs = 4.1:1 with ONE CARD.
9 outs = 1.9:1 WITH TWO CARDS (These figures are rough ok, no decimals or calculators used).

One Card:
4.1:1 (four point 1 TO one) = ONE IN 5.1
Converted to a percentage: 100/5.1 x1 = 19.6%

Two card:
1.9:1 (One Point 9 TO 1) = One in 2.9
Converter to a percentage: 100/2.9x1 = 34.4%

Ok, But let me show you a shortcut.
Take our OUTS(cards that help us/Win) = 9 in this case.

With one card we come, We X by 2 (Multiplay by 2):
9x2 = 18%(Equity)

With two cards to come, we x4 (Mutliply by 4):
9x4 = 36%.

YOU SEE HOW CLOSE THESE ESTIMATIONS ARE TO THE REAL THING? WE CAN DO THIS SIMPLE MATHS DURING THE GAME!!! AWESOME.



Now for a GUTSHOT STRAIGHT (E.g. We hold 67 and the board has 9TK(Nine Ten King).

WE NEED AN 8 TO WIN!

4 cards(8's) in the packet meaning we have 4outs.

With one card to come:
10.5:1 OR 1 IN 11.5 = 100/11.5x1 = 8.6%

With two cards to come:
5:1 or 1 IN 6 = 100/6 = 16.6

Now lets use our estimation method.

4outsx2 (One card to come) = 8% !
4outs x4(Two cards to come) = 16%.

To summarise,
We calculate Equity using mathmatics based on the outs we have. The numbers we use(Outs) we assume GIVE US THE WINNING HAND, if they do not.. our equity will be SIGNIFICANTLy reduced OR EQUAL TO 0.

You can of course calculate equity with 5outs(Thats equivelent to holding say 1 pair and needing to have 2pair to win the hand).

A3 on a 38K Flop Vs a guy with Kx ( x = insignificant card).

We have one pair, But we need two pair of trips to win.
Meaning 2outs to the 3(Wont always be 3outs, some guys could have a 3 in their hand, But im assuming they are "CLEAN". and 3 outs for the other aces.


Your challenge
Calculate the Equity for 2 cards to come, and 4cards to come with 5Outs(1 pair, Drawing to 2pair/Trips - Example shown above).

Good luck.
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