[baronzeus]

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i dont see how calling the river can be wrong if betting the turn for a free showdown is right. can you please explain?

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when you improve on the river you get to put in 2BBs.

also if he has diamonds (very possible) you are making <1bb by checking and calling river, >1bb when betting turn for free showdown.

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i know this, but you improve 1 in 4.5 times, or about 22%. So you gain .22BBs, which is partially offset by the times you are check-raised here, meaning you actually gain less, perhaps around .10BBs (possibly even less, since his line is extremely suspicious and smells like QJ). Compared to the size of the pot, this is a fairly miniscule amount, so if you think betting the turn is OK then calling the river must be OK.


for the diamonds, if you bet the turn and check-behind on the river, you lose 1bet regardless of whether or not he hits.

i think he bluffs the river with a TON of missed draws when you check the turn, so i think you are better off using this line and folding if a diamond hits.