[ QUOTE ]
Online NL, 5-handed.
Hero (UTG) covers the table.
Villain (CO) has 129 BB. Has been playing tightly.
Preflop:
Hero limps with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Villain limps, Button limps, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop (5 players, 5 BB): Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 checks, Hero bets 10 BB, Villain calls, 3 folds.
Turn (2 players, 30 BB): 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero bets 25 BB, Villain calls.
River (2 players, 80 BB): A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets 15 BB, Villain raises to 92 BB (all-in).
[/ QUOTE ]
Hero lets the time run down almost all of the way, then calls 77 BB.
I was the villain. I had 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and won 265 BB - rake with a flush. <font color="white">In case anyone cares, I've rounded inconsistently.</font>
I think my decisions were pretty easy, but a lot of people don't understand the odds of this situation and don't see that this is an easy call or raise of the overbet on the flop, so I'll post the Two Dimes evaluations.
Preflop:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1308865
7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.495
5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 0.505
Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1308886
7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.403
5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 0.597
Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1308895
7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.295
5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 0.705
Against a set, I didn't need much in the way of implied odds to call the nearly pot-sized bet on the turn. I might improve to a flush while the set fills up, and I'll just call a small bet or a small check-raise, but the amount I'll win on the straights more than makes up for this. If I lose 40 BB each on my 2 false outs, win an extra 90 BB on my 6 straights, and 50 BB on my 7 flushes, then for my investment of 25 BB on the turn, I expect to get back about 42 BB, making it a very profitable call against a set, so profitable that
I expect to get more than half of the pot despite the nearly pot-sized bet on the turn.
Of course, it's dangerous for me if I'm up against a higher flush draw, perhaps J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] so that we can both hit a flush or both hit a straight at the same time, or something like T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for a pair plus a higher flush draw. I felt it was much more likely that the hero had a strong made hand, and would pay off when I hit.
I hope I've convinced you that 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a reasonable holding for the villain. So is any flopped gutshot+flush draw, J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],... through 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], as the implied odds are there even though the hero bet twice the pot on the flop and nearly the full pot on the turn. I might also play 88 this way, and it's conceivable that someone would play AA this way. Other possibilities include suited connectors involving the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
At the time, I thought it was likely the hero would call the push with a set since he wouldn't believe that I could have a flush draw. (Of course, I was worried that he had a higher flush.) In retrospect, I think he should have been able to fold 55, as he's not ahead of any hand I would reasonably play this way except possibly 76s or 85s of a different suit (but I'd usually fold on the flop or turn). To have the odds to make this call, he has to hope I frequently call in order to bluff someone who seems to like his hand a lot.
I rarely raise a blocking bet as a bluff because people call too frequently when their blocking bets are raised. To protect your hand from a draw, you not only need to bet before the draw hits, but avoid paying off too much after the draw hits. (Position is very important for this.) The hero of this hand made large bets, but did not protect his hand from my draw.
My vote was for a fold, and that 55 would be ahead 15-20% of the time. However, most of that 15-20% comes from not making the correct read on the villain. Even though the villain seems tight, that should not be assumed. Against me, calling will win less than 10% of the time. The people who said 55 would be good more than 50% of the time have some serious rethinking to do.