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Old 10-29-2005, 08:09 PM
gambelero2 gambelero2 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: kentucky
Posts: 28
Default Re: Theorem of expected stack sizes

Let's take 88 against a 50% of average normal player (a maniac gets played with, a really tight player gets a release). The BB is 10% of the other player's stack.

You're 3% to 6% of the players from the bubble. The bubble payout is 1.5x.

Hero has S1 other player has S2.

Situation 1 S1 = S2*1.25
Situation 2 S1 = S2*.75

In situation 1 a reraise allin is a much better play than situation 2. You are more likely to get a release against Aj Aq, hands over which you have a minimal edge. If you get beat by either a drawout or a bigger pair, you will still probably make the bubble.

Note the extra EV comes from a greater probability of a fold by the other player and because there is an overlay to retaining a small stack into a payout category.
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