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Old 10-20-2003, 02:56 PM
John Biggs John Biggs is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Napa Valley
Posts: 80
Default EV calculations might answer this one way or the other

I believe M's T. applies to other than three-way situations--that was just the example Krieger chose to give in his summary.

Aside from that, I know of only two ways to resolve the question: First, with historical records--in this case, using PokerTracker or PokerStat to see how AQ unraised preflop does versus how it does raised, when playing in a very loose, micro-limit game such as $.50/$1. The problem is it's hard to isolate all the variables, so you get an apples to oranges comparison. So I often prefer the second approach, which is to assume some variables and make a hypothetical calculation of EV from those assumptions. I usually use combinations when doing this, which is a huge amount of math to do by hand. Sometimes I supplement my calculations with data from Caro's Poker Probe or similar to-the-river software, even though it's a blunt instrument for the job. At the moment I am in the middle of a rush job and don't have the time to do it right, but at some point I might try. If I do I'll post my analysis (however puerile) on the forum.

Actually, a third way just occurred to me--if either PokerStat or PokerTracker allow this, it would be interesting to see how many pots are taken down by a one-pair hand (such as top pair, good kicker) at a limit like $.50/$1 versus ditto at progressively higher limits. Since drawing hands likely win a bigger percentage of the pots at low limits than at medium and high limits, a strategy shift is in order. And if preflop spending is a limited resource (and I think it is), then where do you want to put your money? In a very, very loose game, I'd rather limp my weaker offsuit hands such as AQ, since they won't do as well as at a higher limit, and save the extra chips for limping a few more drawing hands than I would in a tougher game.
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