50-100nl. Evaluating Flush Potential in Re-Raised Pot
My intuition is that the probability that I'm facing a flush on the turn after his pot bet is about 10%. Does this seem about right? LFISGD is, of course, extreme LAG. So am I. So against some players, certain flushes (3h6h, 7h3h, and other low suited cards) become unlikely given a pre-flop raise. Even against LFISGD, these cards are unlikely to be played in the face of a re-raise. KhTh, KhJh and the like are trap hands, especially against a player who will re-raise with anything, and will similarly be thrown away after a re-raise. That leaves only AhKh, Ah2h, 5h6h, 7h8h, 10hjh as likely holdings. Does anyone place the prob of a flush here at significantly higher than 10%? Some players are so LAG that they are always going to get paid off with set over set --- LFISGD is such a player. -Brandon
and #9173942-4654 at Bhipak (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 25/Oct/05 17:59:56
BrandonAdams is at seat 5 with $41621.
LFISGD is at seat 6 with $20166.50.
Green Plastic is at seat 7 with $10000 (sitting out).
The button is at seat 6.
LFISGD posts the small blind of $50.
BrandonAdams posts the big blind of $100.
BrandonAdams: 2s 2h
LFISGD: -- --
Pre-flop:
LFISGD raises to $200. BrandonAdams re-raises to
$600. LFISGD calls.
Flop (board: Qh 9h 2c):
BrandonAdams bets $1200. LFISGD raises to $4800.
BrandonAdams calls.
Turn (board: Qh 9h 2c 4h):
BrandonAdams checks. LFISGD bets $10800.
BrandonAdams goes all-in for $36221. LFISGD goes
all-in for $14766.50. BrandonAdams is returned
$21454.50 (uncalled).
River (board: Qh 9h 2c 4h 6c):
(no action in this round)
Showdown:
BrandonAdams shows 2s 2h.
BrandonAdams has 2s 2h Qh 9h 2c: three deuces.
LFISGD shows 9d Qd.
LFISGD has 9d Qd Qh 9h 6c: two pair, queens and nines.
Hand #9173942-4654 Summary:
$.50 is raked from a pot of $40333.
BrandonAdams wins $40332.50 with three deuces.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Getting Hand History Information...
The requested hand is not available.
|