[Buzz]

Steamboatin’ - At the point where you call the bet on the third betting round, you can add up what is already in the pot and what you expect to be in the pot at the showdown, exclusive of what the next two big bets will cost you. If you do that, I think you’ll come up with slightly better than four to one implied pot odds for the 3rd and 4th betting rounds combined. After you check the turn, showing weakness, jhockey111 does not necessarily need a full house to bet, and JFCSURF does not need a full house to call. Either, both or neither of them could have a full house at this point. You just can’t really tell.

You shouldn’t want to draw for the nut flush once the board is paired, but here you already have the nut flush. Having the nut flush is quite a different situation than drawing to the nut flush.

Think of it this way: Would you call with the lowest possible full house? Well, the nut flush is just the next step down from the worst full house.

You have no blockers (cards the same rank as board cards). With no blockers:
• with nine no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 8534/10000.
• with eight no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 8054/10000.
• with seven no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 7463/10000.
• with six no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 6764/10000.
• with five no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 5969/10000.
• with four no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 5057/10000.
• with three no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 4041/10000.
• with two no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 2858/10000.

You started with nine opponents, but six of them folded before the flop. In terms of enrichment of hands that would make a full house with this flop, no particular enrichment should have taken place. Thus you can think of the hands that would make a full house with this particular flop in terms of three no-fold-em opponents. Not even that because the hands that did see this flop were probably enriched in wheel cards and high cards. But O.K., let’s figure in terms of three opponents with random hands seeing this flop. In that case there’s about a forty per cent chance an opponent will end up with a full house if this board pairs. And if the board does pair on the turn and the river is a high card, low is not possible, so that you’re playing for the whole pot.

Then when the board does pair on the turn and the river is a high card, there’s still the forty per cent chance an opponent has ended up with a full house - and low is not possible.

Now let’s think about what jhockey111 and JFCSURF probably think about your hand.
• For your raise before the flop, you might have held A2XY, A3XY, AAXY, or even A4XY - or you might have held something else, especially maybe four high cards, HHHH, to raise before the flop.
• With this particular flop, jhockey111 and JFCSURF should immediately be aware of the possibility that you have a flush. But you don’t necessarily need the nut flush to bet this flop. You could be continuing to bet the pair of aces, or you could be betting A2XY, A3XY, A4XY, or some combination of these, possibly also with clubs. You also might somehow have flopped a set or two pair.
• Then when you check the turn, your hand looks more like a low draw still looking for a third low card on the river, possibly with clubs or maybe two pairs. Since you didn’t bet the turn, your hand doesn’t look much like a full house.

And you should think the same thing of their hands - with the added 40% probability either or both of them has a full house.

But it’s only a 40% probability.

Therefore, you definitely have to call this 3rd round bet - and whatever happens on the river, you’ll also definitely have to call a 4th round bet. The odds your flush is a winner are three to two. Meanwhile you’re getting four to one implied pot odds to call these two bets (taken together). The odds for calling are enormously in your favor.

Doesn't always work out for you when the odds are in your favor, but I think you do better, overall, by having the odds on your side than against you - and if you're going to play, you have to play when the odds are on your side.

Checking the river is better than betting for two reasons. (1) You get a bet from jhockey111 you might not have gotten if you bet yourself. (2) There’s that forty per cent chance jhockey111 has a full house, and if so, you’ll get raised and you should call the raise (because it might not be from a full house and the pot is too big to fold). Thus to bet the river, you should want the odds to be three to one in your own favor, rather than only three to two in your favor. Have you ever played backgammon with the doubling cube? The same three to one betting principle applies here.

Buzz