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How is this peaking with the industrial revolution in China? The rebuilding needed for the hurricanes? I see growth there. Down another 3 points now. =[
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Isn't the entire Chinese economy today a midget
smaller than Italy's? Are you basing any investment thesis's around the Italian economy as well?
And you didn't answer my question. What is it really worth? The last couple years it's been averaged $1 per share earnings. These year earnings are way up because of two reasons. First, higher coal prices, second, a huge tax credit in the last quarter.
So the question you need ask is, what is the true earning power of this company? Is it going to be $5+ per share every year for a long time, or is this just a fluke (the tax credit is very likely a one time only event) and earnings are destined to fall back closer to the $1 per share level over time.
Coal pricing would seem to be the most important driver here. And based on the stock's price action, it looks like many market participants have decided that coal pricing isn't going to hold up.
You need to figure out for yourself what the future might hold for coal prices. Paying $30+ for a stock that's future earning power is $1 a year isn't likely to turn out well. Paying $30+ for one whose future earnings power is $5+, offers a much clearer value.