[llabb]

Again, you make perfect sense, King.

I think you have helped me understand my own plays, as sometimes I bet more than I normally should, just because I think there is so much EV in a play, but then I hedge out later. I intuitively simply thought it was due to making a nice EV play and then just being risk averse, but now I see that it is more akin to your #3, where I subconsciously intend to reduce the risk later. (However, I still occasionally lose the full larger-than-normal amount on the plays that go bad from the start, since there is then no cost-efficient way to hedge.)

Anyway, thanks for your posts, I appreciate how informative they are. I even went to your profile and the blog you linked. Do you also wager basketball, or mainly just football? The NBA is my # 1 sport, particularly longer-term futures, and I would be interested in your input. Last year I did fine on individual games, but much better on season-long wagers and playoff series wagers.

I have currently loaded up on (1) SA to win it all, with some hedging on Indy and Det, and (2) Indy or Det to win the East. Yes, there is Miami risk and surprise team risk, but I figured I would deal with that later, as the lines incorrectly overvalue Miami IMO. After this thread and your posts, I realize that I am thinking I can hedge out that risk later, when the hedging opportunity is more quantifiable, and when I have benefitted from the line movements on some of the teams I am currently playing, which should move favorable for me.