Re: I hit my draw...now what?
I also prefer a bet/3-bet rather than a bet/call.
There are two things you are trying to evaluate (assuming you have the best hand...):
- The likelihood that the middle guy will call one bet.
- The likelihood that the CO will call two bets.
If the first event is more likely, then you want to go for the bet/call. If the second event is more likely, you want to go for the bet/3-bet.
To me it seems that anyone holding an Ace will likely call two bets here. On the other hand, someone with KK (or some such hand) which might what the middle guy has, could easily fold. And, even if he were willing to call one bet, he might also be willing to call two bets.
Also, if you 3-bet, it's even possible that
1) The middle guy will cold-call
2) the CO will four-bet
In either case you'll earn extra. There's a small possibility you're behind to a boat, but I think it's a small enough possibility that you need to take the risk and bet/raise for value.
|